A Solar Marshall Plan for Ukraine
by Greenpeace and Berlin Economics
Solar PV holds significant potential for the reconstruction of Ukraine’s electricity system. The Ukrainian solar PV sector has experienced rapid growth in the late 2010s, growing almost three-fold from 2.0 GW to 5.9 GW in 2018 alone, reaching a total of 8.06 GW by early 2022. Nonetheless, just as all segments of Ukraine’s economy, the sector has been heavily impacted by Russia’s invasion. Roughly 30% of all solar PV capacity has been affected as of mid-2024, much of which is temporarily unavailable, as it is either located in occupied territories or its status is unknown.
Solar PV has however been fundamental to keeping the lights on in Ukraine, especially due to its highly decentralised nature. Both existing utility-scale solar PV, and the accelerated installation of small-scale distributed solar PV in the residential sector and public buildings (most notably schools and hospitals) have significantly increased system resilience, providing clean, reliable electricity even as large stationary fossil-fuel plants have been disabled. While the deployment of solar PV has been progressing even during the war, the recently adopted Ukraine Plan foresees total additions of only 0.7 GW by 2027, well short of Ukraine’s significant technical potential. It is also unclear how such small additions square with more significant ambitions by 2030.
This policy paper assesses the potential integration of larger amounts of solar PV into Ukraine’s electricity system by 2027 and 2030, using a techno-economic modelling approach to determine a cost-optimal, adequate energy system. The findings show that by 2027, a total of 9.2 GW of total solar PV can be integrated into the system, meaning a 3.6 GW increase compared to today’s levels: more than a five-fold increase compared to the additions envisioned in the Ukraine Plan. Additionally, 14 GW total, or an 8.4 GW increase compared to today’s levels is possible by 2030, requiring a total of EUR 4.39 bn in investments. These targets represent the lower bound of possible installations based on estimates of Ukraine’s future electricity demand, but given the cost competitiveness of solar PV, larger amounts of installed capacity of solar PV may be needed if the reconstruction progresses more rapidly and if more end sectors are electrified.